Network Connections by phoenixkeyblack

Last February I wrote the following but left it as draft for some reason.

Last year I was able to connect with my classmates and childhood friends at the Russian Odnoklassniki.ru which some claim is used by successors of the KGB to keep tabs on overseas connections of Russians and others. Before that I signed up for LinkedIn hoping to never lose contact with colleagues. Then came Facebook for yet a few more friends and relatives. Some time has passed and I can see the usefulness of these “social networks” but while they all have continually improved their user interfaces and the network sizes, they have failed in one area. They can all list the connections but so far I have not been able to find one that tries to gauge the strength of the relationship.

Is it fair to treat all relationships the same? The best we have evolved to is grouping of relationships (friends, coworkers, close friends, etc.). Whoever unlocks the method of gauging the strength of the relationship will have discovered the next generation of social networking. Who is in a position to do this? Not the Facebooks and LinkedIns of this world, IMHO. I would place companies like Apple and Google on the map along with Verizons and AT&Ts but even these will have quite a struggle. A light read of the interpersonal relationships page will help understand the magnitude of the challenge.

Not all parent-child relationships are the same just as not all marriages are created equal. These are the easy ones. LinkedIn Outlook Toolbar will scan one’s e-mail to suggest contacts (based on numbers of e-mails exchanged). Does having frequent contact with someone result in a stronger relationship than having very infrequent contact? Is it even possible to quantify and digitize something as complex as human relationships? I think it is but will require capture and analysis of even more information.

Capture of on-screen (technology based) information is easier (and Googles, Apples and Verizons may be able to do that). The really hard part is the capture of the wink, the nod, or the smile that can make or break someone’s day. How about computing the trustworthiness and reliability of someone? I guess we are able to compute credit scores… but wait these are based on transactions. So maybe we can capture transactional relationships but what about the transformational ones (completely outside of systems)?

Sometime ago I wrote this post. I had no idea that Apple was working on the iPad. Perhaps someone out there is spending their days, weeks, and years trying to decode that which we value most – our relationships. I just hope the KGB doesn’t get a hold of that technology…

Old Times by *Healzo

Today was the graduation/promotion day for children of Armenian and Sunday schools at our church. I sat in the back enjoying the whole event and thinking about the difficult challenge of maintaining an Armenian community and culture far from Armenia. Some of the children have Armenian first and last names, others only have the last names, and some have neither. Some are bilingual, others speak English only and are getting introduced to Armenian through the Armenian school. This diversity also reflects the overall church parish with first, second, and even third generation Armenians, many with non-Armenian spouses or themselves children of mixed marriages. Thankfully, the church family has a wonderful accepting atmosphere of love, friendship and fellowship. But the question of survival of that which uniquely identifies us remains as relevant as ever.

Also this week I read an article about the oldest leather shoe discovery in Armenia. From the oldest shoe to often being an old-shoe, what do Armenians have and what can Armenians do to preserve and enhance what Armenians have? The basics are our religion, the spoken language, our cuisine, the annual habits and traditions. These we seem to maintain more or less. Unfortunately, it takes enormous efforts to maintain and pass along the basics. Many families do not have an Armenian church nearby and must travel miles to get to one. We speak Armenian at home but our son would rather answer in English (extremely painful for me personally). We cook Armenian foods but even those are under constant attack and argument about actual origin, the real recipe, etc. If the basics are challenging, conversation about the complexities is meaningless.

For example, how does an Armenian mother raise a daughter with the same strong family devotion and sacrifice qualities in this individualistic, self-centered culture where over half of marriages result in a divorce? What qualities would it require to raise children who not only spoke but also read and wrote freely in Armenian? What gargantuan effort would it take to teach these children enough of the language for them to actually understand the literature? And would it even be possible for them to contribute to that literature? So even if we are able to get through the simple and complex challenges, what do we do for our children to repeat the process for another generation? Is the problem completely hopeless when only one spouse is of Armenian descent? Each family struggles in its own ways with these issues. Unfortunately, the kids grow up to struggle themselves as they try to establish families in the context of their bi-cultural upbringing.

Perhaps the answer is in our struggle. While we may disagree how a word should be pronounced or what the right way to make խորոված (Armenian BBQ) is, we all share the burden of our historical struggles and sufferings. Why not unite around our current struggle to preserve and enhance our culture and use that as the single source of agreement even when we disagree about everything else. Second, we need to ask and learn from our Jewish friends who have persevered despite their distance from a homeland and despite their struggles. While books could be written about the differences between the Holocaust and the Armenian Genocide, the struggle of survival after devastation of that magnitude with majority of people living outside the homeland is certainly something we have in common.

Do we (Armenians living outside Armenia) have more in common with other cultures (or the current host culture) than we do with one another? What about a generation later? It is fascinating to see a different struggle (whether a set of schools in Armenia should be converted to be completely foreign language based) evolve in the homeland where they seem to be oblivious to these issues.

The Kitchen Sink by ~rmsk8r05

A user interface (UI) is the set of means by which we interact with a system. I have probably mentioned in the past that I view almost everything as some type of a system or a component within a system. These systems all have UIs. In many cases, the UI is all we get to see from outside. The best systems have exceptional foundations and inner-workings in addition to their simple, clear, and easy-to-learn user interfaces. Let me give you a couple examples.

Every house has a UI. A coat closet in the wrong place, a door swinging the wrong way, or a light switch across the room all contribute to minor annoyances we typically get used to in an older home. Inside the house system, key components of the UI of the plumbing sub-system are faucets and sinks. Does the refrigerator have a user interface? Of course!

Take the system of government. Does that have a UI? Certainly! Move from one state or country to another and you may feel as helpless in dealing with basic tasks as in moving from one computer operating system to another. The frustration grows when the new UI is worse (less intuitive, with more flaws, lacking in features, etc.) than the prior one (even if the inner structures are better). Our frustration also increases when an interface to which we are accustomed changes for the worse over time.

Our impressions of the experience of interaction are hinged upon the interface presented. A beautiful and delicious meal at a nice restaurant with outstanding service creates an impression of an organized and efficient kitchen. Is this always the case or is it an illusion created by the restaurateur?

Here are some questions I cannot seem to be able to answer:

1. What allows one group of people to create a system superior to those created by other similar groups? Why is Apple able to create a computer that’s perceived to be easier to use than that created by Dell/Microsoft? Why are the founding fathers of America able to create a system far superior to that created by Lenin and his friends? Why is one town in Massachusetts able to govern itself better than another?
2. When we perceive the system to be superior to an alternative, do we really know everything about its internal structures, or are we just impressed by the user interface? Does the internal structure and foundation really matter? Example of this is “slapping a coat of paint before putting the house on the market.”
3. Is the user interface at all indicative of the underlying structural excellence? Can a system last the test of time if most effort (and investment) is toward the interface?
4. Why are some people able to create nice interfaces (such as beautiful web sites) while others cannot even maintain a system that’s given to them? Some people and groups seem to exist to run innovations into the ground.
5. Have we come too far? In contrast to our simpler beginnings when we had fewer systems and user interfaces (and fewer points of failure), have we created a monster by creating interdependent systems with complex interfaces in every corner of our life?

I suspect the answers depend on the perspective but it is clear to me that we are riding an interesting long-term wave of systems and interfaces. The transformation is faster than ever and the results more spectacular than ever yet basic humanitarian questions are far from finding their answers. Maybe the interface is getting more attention than it deserves in some departments of our life and not enough in others.

yin yang by ~kristuzhe

I had to drive to Albany to meet with the State of New York folks. The two hour drive each way provides ample time to enjoy the scenery and reflect. For the mathematically inclined, I have an important once in a lifetime date to celebrate on November 16th, 2009. On that day, I will have lived the first half of my life in Armenia, and the second half in America (not counting minor temporary absences) where I arrived on Henry Ford’s 130th birthday. The more time I spend in America, the less I want to go anywhere else. Strange… The more I live in Massachusetts, the less I want to travel to other states. Crossing the border on I-90 to New York seemed like I had entered a different country for some reason.

But I enjoy the ride on I-90 West. It brings back memories of my childhood when we would pretend we were heroes from the The Last of the Mohicans, a story that was what Star Wars is to my son. I feel bad that our children do not have a chance of experiencing a childhood similar to mine but maybe that’s what every parent thinks. The trees, the road, the scenery bring back thoughts of times past when people had to actually survive the harsh winters in these areas without the conveniences of today. How did they manage to do it? Life seems so hard at times yet the early settlers managed to live and with each generation make this country a better place. Then the mind wanders… how many people had to work to build a road like the I-90? How about all the roads in this country? Smooth and flawless, straight, with clear signs they stretch from coast to coast, from state to state. I drive some more and notice houses not too far from the highway. How do these people live? Where do they work? I drive some more and notice the McDonalds plaza. Didn’t I just pass one? Then I start to notice the NPR static, time to find the NY station. Ah.. I forgot that Marketplace is on in the morning here. Gloomy news about the economy, or no wait, it’s good news, no wait… Ah.. forget it.

Every time I drive on a long stretch of highway, I remember my mother. She once mentioned to me how much she liked going on long rides. The only long ride I can remember with her was the trip to New York City. What a wonderful time we had…

I am back now. The meetings went well. Next week I will spend a day and a half flying to Canada to speak for 20 minutes. How does that make any ecological sense?

With 10.2% unemployment, I better go drum up some business. Even if a few folks are hired as a result, maybe it’ll have been worth the effort.

bow to greatness by ~4dreamer

Our kindergarten teacher once told my mother that she thought I was a “մտավոր հետամնաց (mentally lagging)”. Couple weeks later we were given small paragraphs to learn for a performance. I brought home the handwritten piece of paper so my mother could teach me what I had to say. She instead corrected seven or eight grammatical and spelling errors with red ink and asked me to take it back to the teacher. This teacher I think had the wrong diagnosis. After years of denial and disagreement with my beautiful wife, I finally came to the conclusion this week that I probably suffer from some (maybe mild) form of Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD). When I mentioned this to her a couple of days ago, she smiled and said that she still loved me.

Along the lines of self-examination, I also rediscovered my “plain vanilla” nature lacking in extraordinary abilities and exceptional gifts. Maybe this is a blessing. Perhaps extraordinary people who can see more, understand more, command more also suffer more. I was reading about Enrico Fermi after a book recommendation from Rocky Humbert who kindly bought me a cup of coffee last weekend for which I completely forgot to thank him as we were having a most interesting and enjoyable conversation. Rocky is also someone with an extraordinary mind. My nuclear physicist friend once told me that the difference between exceptional and average people is time. That which takes me hours, days or years to learn or understand may take them seconds or less. Also, when I commit one hour or one day to a project, they commit a year or a lifetime.

Deep in the comments of an interesting post about hubris, Don Chu mentions that “the referential individual unit is certainly the level where all significant achievements originate.” I hope that the three-letter-acronym mentioned above will not get in the way of living my life of average achievements. Regardless, as Don says: “And the result in every case, always: mene mene tekel upharsin (numbered weighed, found wanting — divided).”

God by ~SoundArt

In response to a recent post from Jeff Watson, I said “I don’t believe markets can be accurately predicted. I have not yet seen any evidence that proves me wrong and would appreciate learning from those who have access to such science or methods. Markets are not subject to natural laws. My objective is to lose as little purchasing power over time as possible. I have not found a way to accurately [and consistently] predict even a single future price.”

Rocky Humbert, the legendary speculator and curmudgeon, promptly responded with “I tend to agree with you, but your statement as composed could also be applied to the existence of G-d. Based on your blog, I know you to be a man of faith. How does one reconcile (”using science or methods”) the lack of faith in the predictability of markets with a faith in G-d? Or perhaps is this logically consistent?”

I am happy that my faith has come through my previous posts and thank Rocky for asking this question.

1. I have not seen any federal funding for research into existence of God in recent times. Basic science research goes nowhere without massive funding. I certainly do not propose adding yet another line item to the already gargantuan federal budget that the government believes we can finance but how can one begin to answer profound questions without much scientific study? Perhaps this is like living in the second century and trying to prove the existence of electrons and protons and the genome.

2. I have no irrefutable way to prove the existence of God aside from the miracles in my own life. Some of my reasons for having faith in God are documented here. Having faith and having proof are two different matters. Did everything happen a certain way for me by mere coincidence? Some may say that random events can line up perfectly and repeatedly. Others may say that hard work or luck is the cause. I find it easier to believe that an omnipotent God whose reasons I may not understand has arranged everything for a certain purpose. I have no internal struggle about my faith in God despite the lack of scientific verifiable proof.

3. Penn State Clips mentions interesting “Books like Gerald L. Schroeder’s The Science of God: The Convergence of Scientific and Biblical Wisdom, Francis Collins’ The Language of God: A Scientist Presents Evidence for Belief, and the various works of Josh McDowell and Lee Strobel.” Then continues with a very nice point “I agree with you that the beauty of nature is, to me, a proof of God’s existence. It strains credulity for me to believe that the beauty and complexity of all of creation came about by chance. And we only get to see the tiny fraction here on Earth!”

4. I believe that market cycles can be understood by humans who take part in such cycles. I also believe that in the long run people will benefit from diversifying their postponed expenditures in different asset classes. Beating the markets every single year or month or quarter or in the long run probably matters little. Furthermore, I have little faith that the current binary computer models can reliably predict the complex interrelationships in ever changing markets. An interesting read may be the uncertainty principle.

5. Since I am not on a mission to prove anyone anything, I can write my thoughts at the current time based on my limited life and experiences. Some may believe that markets are completely predictable and may even be able to “win” with their systems. I wish they will choose to share their “proofs” as those works may become cornerstones of new and amazing human discoveries and progress. Others may feel God’s love and grace are the “opium” the simple ones like me need to get through life. Certainly evolution will not be quick enough in that deep hole at the time of greatest despair or in the moment of amazing joy to revert the species to the mean. When I read what I wrote last year, I laugh. Maybe a year from now I will laugh about this post.

6. I welcome all thoughts, opinions, debates and proofs. I accept everyone the way I hope God will accepts me with all my flaws, opinions, and thoughts.

I realize that this is probably not the rock solid evidence or reconciliation that Rocky may have been expecting but felt it was better to post rather than have it in the draft folder forever.

A Trip to Karabakh certainly didn’t help. This Georgian movie is terrible (to put it mildly). Old neighbor’s usage of the Armenian struggle as a vehicle for delivering some muddled messages about its own struggle is a repeat of the same old, showcasing its true character. This reminded me yet again how important it is for Armenians in the diaspora to remain united. For example, having two churches in America and in some countries is absolutely not helpful! I hope there is someone in the world who can give me at least one theological argument or one good reason why the two churches should remain separate. May this song remind all Armenians who stumble upon my insignificant corner on the Internet about all that which we share.

Armenians in Armenia will have no issues partaking in a common culture but there are many issues they cannot raise because of the political mess inherited from being situated in that restless corner of the world for thousands of years. But I know that each family and every individual deep down looks upon an extended family member, a friend in the diaspora as a source of support when all else fails.

Lenin by ~Belotaurus

A sense of worry about the many negative unintended consequences of recent actions has come over me. Perhaps it has something to do with receiving “healthy” doses of government propaganda during my ten years in the Soviet Armenian school system. I can still remember the brain-cleansing we had to undergo about how Comrade Lenin loved children and how Comrade Stalin also loved children and how many cubic tons of iron ore were required to meet the five year plan of the… In the name of the taxpayer much change is being proposed. I thought corporations also pay taxes. Perhaps, it is the collapse of the Soviet Union which taught me so many lessons. Even today, I remember vividly the day when we heard about the massacres in Sumgait in February of 1988. In my memory, this was the event that sparked the collapse of a dark era started by the events of 1917.

It seems that people forget that to grow anything meaningful in a garden, the soil must be rich with humus and at the right acidity. It seems they forget that once something is planted that the ground and the roots should not be disturbed. What business does Congress have in passing a 90% tax on anything? Given things stay roughly the same, I am sure the economy will get better sooner or later. The challenge right now is that nothing is a given.

For people who trade via systems, I have a question. At which point does one decide to:

1. modify the system (and to what degree and based on what)?
2. discard the system (and why)?
3. continue relying on the system (and for how long); if such a system is producing losing trades more recently but has worked fine for a long time (definition of time scales not relevant)?

Perhaps the answer contains clues regarding our recent government actions (and market reactions) where the scale of the system and the magnitude of its impact is great. The problem is further complicated by control over one’s actions but lack of control over [negative] consequences of those actions in human systems.

The second question that does not leave me alone is whether a game of chess (or any other game) can be won if after every few moves, the game rules are modified. Does the player quickly adjust and remain focused on winning the game according to the new rules (“queen can only move three squares at a time” for example) or does the focus shift on guessing what the next set of rule changes may be? After a few sets of changes and corresponding adjustments, does the player begin to suspect the rule maker in “supporting” the other side?

I implemented a few systems in the past and although my work was done in months, the result of my work has remained in use for many years. In some cases, the system manager has spent the last decade working with the result of what I created in months. If we translate that time into a new unit called “lifetime” (1 lifetime = 80 years), s/he has spent 1/8th lifetime with something I created in 0.00625 lifetime. To parallel this, a senator can make enough changes in 0.025 lifetime to affect 4 lifetime or more. Multiply that by the number of people affected and you have the true impact of a change. Time is the key ingredient that every life shares on this earth.

father time by AJ Frena

While driving around a few days ago, an old colonial house caught my eye. I think it was built sometime in the mid-19th century. How many children has that house seen? How many happy and unhappy couples have lived in it? I wonder if hundred eighty years from now someone will similarly wonder what we must have gone through when building our house. They would have no idea how we thought through every last detail. They would have discussions about our intentions. What if the third owner abused this house and the fourth owner added a new room and got an electrician to rewire the whole house. Would the fifth owner even be able to see beyond the two prior owners? Would the electrician consider the impact of his work on generations and families? Would anything remain from our original design? Would they question our intentions? Would they be slaves to the house or would they make the house a slave to them? Sometimes I see America as that house from years gone by.

A 30-year mortgage is paid off in 37.5% of 1 lifetime. First 25% of 1 lifetime is spent in early basic education. 33% of 1 lifetime is spent sleeping. These affected me much less when I thought lifetime was an eternity. We often hear that what we are about to decide depends on our time horizon. Or we hear that we have plenty of time to get to something. Or we have warranties or guarantees for life (whose life?). Any time a comment is made about time, I convert it into this new unit called lifetime and get a different perspective of the issue.

On the opposite end of a lifetime, we find seconds (milliseconds, microseconds…). Our brains can detect delays of microseconds to localize sound in space (triangulate the location of the sound based on the distance between our two ears). It takes little time for us to respond to someone else. Although the brain can process at such amazing speeds, that does not mean we always avoid making mistakes of a lifetime in a split second? Why is it sometimes difficult for us to insert a time lag between stimulus and response when needed and respond immediately in situations requiring quick action? It takes a second to ruin trust built over a lifetime (consider the recent financial criminal’s split second decisions converted to lifetime impact on victims). On the scale of eternity (or from God’s perspective) 1 lifetime is only a microsecond but that we cannot understand. Second by second, we must fill up our lifetime with the choices we make.

There is a lot to talk about when it comes to time but one more point for now is reference to it in analysis. How long is a century and can we really understand what it represents if we haven’t experienced it? Or when we hear that something has a particular attribute (“Joe is a nice guy.”, “Toyota makes good cars.”, “Lehman is a solid company.”), do we remember the time dimension? How long has this been the case? How has the definition of the attribute changed over time? Based on these changes over time, is the initial statement still valid? It was fascinating to hear all kinds of analysis and predictions flying around about presidential elections not too long ago based on past elections. It is also funny to hear all kinds of predictions about the current recession, the prices of gold, and the status of the dollar as a reserve currency.

Time is that constant companion of ours that either gets no attention or the wrong attention. Perhaps our perspective, our decisions and, as a result, our lives would improve from a simple recognition of the place of everything along that critical time dimension. I’ll finish with a quote from Ecclesiastes 3:

“1 There is a time for everything, and a season for every activity under heaven: 2 a time to be born and a time to die, a time to plant and a time to uproot, 3 a time to kill and a time to heal, a time to tear down and a time to build, 4 a time to weep and a time to laugh, a time to mourn and a time to dance, 5 a time to scatter stones and a time to gather them, a time to embrace and a time to refrain, 6 a time to search and a time to give up, a time to keep and a time to throw away, 7 a time to tear and a time to mend, a time to be silent and a time to speak, 8 a time to love and a time to hate, a time for war and a time for peace. “