empty by ~Kosmur

The past few months have been extremely difficult and busy. My new product hit the market last month. The effort required to “give birth” to something new is absolutely incredible; the process is exciting and also exhausting. But as usual, the release brings with it a feeling of emptiness from an achieved objective. Fortunately when it comes to work, there is no end in sight. Plenty of new goals are waiting to be achieved.

A couple weeks ago, some blogger out there sent a lot of traffic my way with the following comment: “Some people will set up blogs for bizarre, individualistic reasons. This pretentious douche thinks of his blog as his gift to his children. Sorry dude, I bet they’d rather have a Wii.” I wasn’t going to dignify his words with a response. But he’s only the tool, the stimulus for further thought. The response is not meant for him.

Some will call names, crucify publicly or in private, harass, persecute, put down, and ridicule people that they don’t understand, in every case highlighting their own weakness, fear, or lack of self-confidence. Even good, confident, strong people sometimes become weak and engage in name calling. “That idiot has no idea how to drive!” “Obama is pure evil!” When we can do little to affect a situation, we vent. Some are evil and attack to evoke a response. They become surprised when their attack is read and the exact opposite of “expected” response is given. This usually puts them in a position of severe weakness (which brings forward further attacks).

I must have hit a nerve a year and half ago saying that I was not writing to make money. My posts may be worth nothing (which is most likely the case) but at least the site is not packed with Google ads asking readers to click on “relevant” links. The blogger somewhere boasted that he was making about $20 from each post. I would rather my posts were worth $0 than $20, a concept he’s likely to misunderstand. I said that this was my gift to my children. This earned his ridicule and a “wise suggestion” to get them a Wii instead. He doesn’t realize that my 7-year-old son will probably buy his own Wii by Christmas, of course if that’s how he chooses to spend his hard-saved dollars and gifts from the tooth fairy.

In some ways people are like airplanes cruising at different altitudes and speeds. He’s jetting and spreading money smarts from high altitudes at high speeds, has many readers, and even earns $20 for every post. I’ll continue riding my little bicycle and believing that some day those who matter will value these scribbles.

Average Joe by ~weaponx263

Friday. Tired from a week of constant barrage of e-mail, calls, issues, and people. Finished the last call of the day. Completely finished, wasted, empty arrived at the dinner table. Across are sitting two beautiful children excited that I am theirs at last. But work got the best of me again leaving little for them. After dinner he wants to play with Lego characters, she wants to dance and be a princess. I can’t stop thinking about the dozens of projects, tasks, problems, things to do, things I forgot to do, the phone calls I couldn’t make, the calls I should have made. Another hour, they’re sleeping. I hear the Olympics on TV where the best of the best compete. Back to childhood and my mother where I was one day to be a best in something, in anything. I am not a best. I am not even good enough! Not a good enough father, not a good enough son, not good enough at work, not good enough in anything… Stop! Destructive thinking. I am a role model for them. I must find the energy to work harder, to be better. Maybe this is a phase, a difficult phase. I need some rest.

The Kitchen Sink by ~rmsk8r05

A user interface (UI) is the set of means by which we interact with a system. I have probably mentioned in the past that I view almost everything as some type of a system or a component within a system. These systems all have UIs. In many cases, the UI is all we get to see from outside. The best systems have exceptional foundations and inner-workings in addition to their simple, clear, and easy-to-learn user interfaces. Let me give you a couple examples.

Every house has a UI. A coat closet in the wrong place, a door swinging the wrong way, or a light switch across the room all contribute to minor annoyances we typically get used to in an older home. Inside the house system, key components of the UI of the plumbing sub-system are faucets and sinks. Does the refrigerator have a user interface? Of course!

Take the system of government. Does that have a UI? Certainly! Move from one state or country to another and you may feel as helpless in dealing with basic tasks as in moving from one computer operating system to another. The frustration grows when the new UI is worse (less intuitive, with more flaws, lacking in features, etc.) than the prior one (even if the inner structures are better). Our frustration also increases when an interface to which we are accustomed changes for the worse over time.

Our impressions of the experience of interaction are hinged upon the interface presented. A beautiful and delicious meal at a nice restaurant with outstanding service creates an impression of an organized and efficient kitchen. Is this always the case or is it an illusion created by the restaurateur?

Here are some questions I cannot seem to be able to answer:

1. What allows one group of people to create a system superior to those created by other similar groups? Why is Apple able to create a computer that’s perceived to be easier to use than that created by Dell/Microsoft? Why are the founding fathers of America able to create a system far superior to that created by Lenin and his friends? Why is one town in Massachusetts able to govern itself better than another?
2. When we perceive the system to be superior to an alternative, do we really know everything about its internal structures, or are we just impressed by the user interface? Does the internal structure and foundation really matter? Example of this is “slapping a coat of paint before putting the house on the market.”
3. Is the user interface at all indicative of the underlying structural excellence? Can a system last the test of time if most effort (and investment) is toward the interface?
4. Why are some people able to create nice interfaces (such as beautiful web sites) while others cannot even maintain a system that’s given to them? Some people and groups seem to exist to run innovations into the ground.
5. Have we come too far? In contrast to our simpler beginnings when we had fewer systems and user interfaces (and fewer points of failure), have we created a monster by creating interdependent systems with complex interfaces in every corner of our life?

I suspect the answers depend on the perspective but it is clear to me that we are riding an interesting long-term wave of systems and interfaces. The transformation is faster than ever and the results more spectacular than ever yet basic humanitarian questions are far from finding their answers. Maybe the interface is getting more attention than it deserves in some departments of our life and not enough in others.

A Safe Flight Home by ~Ericana

Last week was devoted to Canada. Fairmont Château Laurier was impressive. The event was executed perfectly. My small piece went better than I had expected. In preparation, I learned a few things about the government in Canada. After the event, in a chat, I learned about a thought that could make everything we’re doing less relevant. I heard about a fear to remain relevant from my management earlier in the week. With these two tokens in place, I couldn’t get the word “relevant” out of my head.

What does it take to remain relevant? In free and advanced societies, these words seem to represent the essence of the battle. The quest to remain relevant brings out the best in us. We innovate, advance, improve and compete to obsolete the status quo. The worst sometimes comes out when we feel we are no longer important. A few weeks ago, someone special mentioned in a passing conversation that she wanted to live as long as she could be helpful. The challenge is that in our different roles as contributors, workers, parents, leaders, we must do everything possible to advance the current state of affairs but at the same time we know progress, innovation, advancement, money do not matter most. Some of us balance this by time division or by life division. Others don’t balance and focus on one set of priorities at the expense of others. Some fruits of labor remain relevant for centuries such as the Bach’s Brandenburg Concerto #2 in F currently playing on my computer. Sometimes we are only relevant for a few minutes. For example, when we give a stranger directions on how to get to where they are heading (the GPS innovation has decreased these opportunities significantly).

On the flight back, exhausted, I put on a set of noise canceling headphones to tune out the jet, and rest the restless mind a bit. The iPhone shuffle played this song:

In that near-perfect silence, this powerful melody somehow transported the tired mind back to what mattered most. My beautiful wife and little ones were waiting for me.

bow to greatness by ~4dreamer

Our kindergarten teacher once told my mother that she thought I was a “մտավոր հետամնաց (mentally lagging)”. Couple weeks later we were given small paragraphs to learn for a performance. I brought home the handwritten piece of paper so my mother could teach me what I had to say. She instead corrected seven or eight grammatical and spelling errors with red ink and asked me to take it back to the teacher. This teacher I think had the wrong diagnosis. After years of denial and disagreement with my beautiful wife, I finally came to the conclusion this week that I probably suffer from some (maybe mild) form of Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD). When I mentioned this to her a couple of days ago, she smiled and said that she still loved me.

Along the lines of self-examination, I also rediscovered my “plain vanilla” nature lacking in extraordinary abilities and exceptional gifts. Maybe this is a blessing. Perhaps extraordinary people who can see more, understand more, command more also suffer more. I was reading about Enrico Fermi after a book recommendation from Rocky Humbert who kindly bought me a cup of coffee last weekend for which I completely forgot to thank him as we were having a most interesting and enjoyable conversation. Rocky is also someone with an extraordinary mind. My nuclear physicist friend once told me that the difference between exceptional and average people is time. That which takes me hours, days or years to learn or understand may take them seconds or less. Also, when I commit one hour or one day to a project, they commit a year or a lifetime.

Deep in the comments of an interesting post about hubris, Don Chu mentions that “the referential individual unit is certainly the level where all significant achievements originate.” I hope that the three-letter-acronym mentioned above will not get in the way of living my life of average achievements. Regardless, as Don says: “And the result in every case, always: mene mene tekel upharsin (numbered weighed, found wanting — divided).”

fresh by ~thelittlegoldfish

This was another draft that sat in my book waiting for today.

In many cases, I find it very helpful to start fresh from a clean slate. My mother’s strict rules of neatness and cleanliness, or my father’s requirements for order in everything, or some genetic switch someplace on either or both sides of the family tree have resulted in what my wife calls a clear case of OCD. As expected, I am convinced that this need for order is not a disorder (she thought “auditory” as she finished reading that). Below are some examples where I have found this concept very helpful.

In most construction projects, the results are usually dramatically improved when the existing space is demolished, cleared and cleaned before the “new” work begins. But the danger of “sinchyas” is always introduced in these cases. “Sinchya gonna take down the drywall, why don’t you redo the plumbing behind it.” “Sinchya gonna redo the plumbing, get the electrical redone, too.” Assuming scope can be controlled, starting a project from a cleaner slate yields better results. However, in construction there’s also the daily “clean slate.” I cannot end a day without cleaning up the project area, putting everything in its place so that the next morning I can start from a clean slate. With this method, daily progress is very visible and exciting. Once the work completes, the contrast of before and after is part of the return for the hard work.

I have found starting from a clean sheet also very helpful in dealing with markets. Since I am not running a mutual fund, there is no reason why I cannot sell everything and force myself to buy back after a day, or a week, or a month only what makes sense. This cold shower method is the best acid test that I have found for testing my conviction of owning in the first place. Commissions, possible tax implications, possibility of having to buy at a higher price, and a few other issues do not allow this test to be free of charge. However, the alternative of holding possible losers can be even more costly. I have also found this to be a good way to deal with periods of significant uncertainty. Since I’m in no competition with the market, I tend to buy when I am ahead and sell when I am behind. These are two methods of deciding when to sell (sell all, and sell when lagging).

Even in relationships starting from a clean page is sometimes very helpful and enjoyable. Just as Mother Nature has its mechanisms for new starts, so do we. With every new year, new day and new life, we are given new energy, new hope, and new challenges.

God by ~SoundArt

In response to a recent post from Jeff Watson, I said “I don’t believe markets can be accurately predicted. I have not yet seen any evidence that proves me wrong and would appreciate learning from those who have access to such science or methods. Markets are not subject to natural laws. My objective is to lose as little purchasing power over time as possible. I have not found a way to accurately [and consistently] predict even a single future price.”

Rocky Humbert, the legendary speculator and curmudgeon, promptly responded with “I tend to agree with you, but your statement as composed could also be applied to the existence of G-d. Based on your blog, I know you to be a man of faith. How does one reconcile (”using science or methods”) the lack of faith in the predictability of markets with a faith in G-d? Or perhaps is this logically consistent?”

I am happy that my faith has come through my previous posts and thank Rocky for asking this question.

1. I have not seen any federal funding for research into existence of God in recent times. Basic science research goes nowhere without massive funding. I certainly do not propose adding yet another line item to the already gargantuan federal budget that the government believes we can finance but how can one begin to answer profound questions without much scientific study? Perhaps this is like living in the second century and trying to prove the existence of electrons and protons and the genome.

2. I have no irrefutable way to prove the existence of God aside from the miracles in my own life. Some of my reasons for having faith in God are documented here. Having faith and having proof are two different matters. Did everything happen a certain way for me by mere coincidence? Some may say that random events can line up perfectly and repeatedly. Others may say that hard work or luck is the cause. I find it easier to believe that an omnipotent God whose reasons I may not understand has arranged everything for a certain purpose. I have no internal struggle about my faith in God despite the lack of scientific verifiable proof.

3. Penn State Clips mentions interesting “Books like Gerald L. Schroeder’s The Science of God: The Convergence of Scientific and Biblical Wisdom, Francis Collins’ The Language of God: A Scientist Presents Evidence for Belief, and the various works of Josh McDowell and Lee Strobel.” Then continues with a very nice point “I agree with you that the beauty of nature is, to me, a proof of God’s existence. It strains credulity for me to believe that the beauty and complexity of all of creation came about by chance. And we only get to see the tiny fraction here on Earth!”

4. I believe that market cycles can be understood by humans who take part in such cycles. I also believe that in the long run people will benefit from diversifying their postponed expenditures in different asset classes. Beating the markets every single year or month or quarter or in the long run probably matters little. Furthermore, I have little faith that the current binary computer models can reliably predict the complex interrelationships in ever changing markets. An interesting read may be the uncertainty principle.

5. Since I am not on a mission to prove anyone anything, I can write my thoughts at the current time based on my limited life and experiences. Some may believe that markets are completely predictable and may even be able to “win” with their systems. I wish they will choose to share their “proofs” as those works may become cornerstones of new and amazing human discoveries and progress. Others may feel God’s love and grace are the “opium” the simple ones like me need to get through life. Certainly evolution will not be quick enough in that deep hole at the time of greatest despair or in the moment of amazing joy to revert the species to the mean. When I read what I wrote last year, I laugh. Maybe a year from now I will laugh about this post.

6. I welcome all thoughts, opinions, debates and proofs. I accept everyone the way I hope God will accepts me with all my flaws, opinions, and thoughts.

I realize that this is probably not the rock solid evidence or reconciliation that Rocky may have been expecting but felt it was better to post rather than have it in the draft folder forever.

Modernizing of History 5 by ~forrest-rowell

“So convenient a thing it is to be a reasonable creature, since it enables one to find or make a reason for everything one has a mind to do.” ~ Benjamin Franklin

What a perfect way to summarize our lives and the world in a single sentence! As self-aware creatures we are capable of recognizing self-deception yet acceptance of it (or even recognition) is rarely visible externally even if it takes place internally. Per Dr. Franklin, I should now attempt to “find or make a reason” for this observation. Actually, let me skip that step this time.

Markets are the best place to observe the “reason” factory in action. Why is something selling for more today than yesterday? Why did one buy or sell something at a particular level? Life is one giant reason factory. From workplace to world politics, from entrepreneurial endeavors to unthinkable acts, we are busy finding or making reasons for everything we do.

Maybe all we can do is hope that we do everything for the right reasons…

Yarmouth Boardwalk by *lutke45

Despite the many negatives, business travel has an amazing way of refocusing the mind on what really matters. In my case, coming home to my beautiful wife and the kids was all I needed to feel normal again. Without realizing, they have a wonderful way of supporting me through my long days of work… days like yesterday (I worked from the moment I opened my eyes in the morning until I went to bed late at night). A hug, a smile, even just their presence can give tremendous amount of energy. This energy was not there in California. Consequently, the concept of base of operations has been front and center for me recently.

I cannot even begin to imagine what it may be like to destroy this unique and powerful “base” during a divorce. Where do people living in broken families get their energy? What about the excruciating pain of a natural disaster tearing up the ground in which we grow? Maybe I came one small step closer in understanding my father who lost his half exactly two years ago. Perhaps it is the coincidence of all these events with the anniversary of my half and I becoming whole that is stirring up all these thoughts.

It is late at night, but I feel like a child who wants to go to bed early on Christmas Eve with great anticipation for the next morning. Tomorrow we get to go on vacation. I get to spend an entire week with people who matter most. Cape Cod is beautiful but only because we will be together.

An Old Friend

It feels like a century since my last update. Today was a very special graduation day for me and must be celebrated by a line in the proverbial sand. With over two dozen bids, my 4×8 trailer was sold for $100 to the next slave of manual labor who will certainly get good value for his investment in cash terms but not in hours wasted transporting worthless stuff from one location to another. For over a decade, the temptation and the need to save a few dollars has been too great and the tool too close for me to be able to resist sinking time into transporting the two yards of mulch or the two shelves for the kids’ toys. Now that is all history despite my beautiful wife’s and my wise brother’s sage words that I shall regret this painful decision. Life is full of risks. This is one risk the ultra-careful side of me is ready to accept right now. Who knows… maybe I will look back in ten years with eyes full of tears… not from nostalgic memories of the great past but from realization of all the money wasted on transportation. Let’s see how it goes but for now it feels great.

A time comes when even the timeless time feels like it’s running out of precious time.