Bike: with note by ~plasket

My son rides his bicycle to school on nice days. He got it as a present from his grandparents. One Friday a few weeks ago he had to leave the bike at school overnight. When we went to get it on Saturday, the bicycle was gone. I stood there thinking who would steal a kid’s bike from an elementary school bike rack… but then thought this was a good lesson for all of us to take care of our belongings.

My wife diligently followed up with reports to the school and the town police in case someone spotted the bike. She also posted a description with a number to call in a few areas nearby the school. A couple weeks later, Mr. G., the crossing guard, told her that some forces were at work regarding the bicycle and that he had a good feeling that something good would happen. She thought he meant that someone had an idea where the bike was left.

Another week went by and we received the following e-mail:

“Dear …,

Please bring your son’s bike helmet to school this afternoon.

There is a surprise for him at the bike rack.

The combination is …

His friends at school.”

Mr. G. and we don’t have a clue who else had bought my son a new bicycle. Expecting absolutely nothing in return, they had taught him, us and all his little buddies at school one of the most powerful lessons in life. My wife and I were completely speechless.

While we could have probably bought him a new bicycle, there is no way we could have given him such a powerful memory to cherish for a lifetime. The blessing of giving and the blessing of a community that cares are the building blocks of this great country. For days I have been remembering those who gave me what I could have never earned myself at the time when I needed their help the most. Just as I will never forget what they did for me, I hope my son will never forget that his new bicycle came from the goodness of our neighbors’ hearts.

Average Joe by ~weaponx263

Friday. Tired from a week of constant barrage of e-mail, calls, issues, and people. Finished the last call of the day. Completely finished, wasted, empty arrived at the dinner table. Across are sitting two beautiful children excited that I am theirs at last. But work got the best of me again leaving little for them. After dinner he wants to play with Lego characters, she wants to dance and be a princess. I can’t stop thinking about the dozens of projects, tasks, problems, things to do, things I forgot to do, the phone calls I couldn’t make, the calls I should have made. Another hour, they’re sleeping. I hear the Olympics on TV where the best of the best compete. Back to childhood and my mother where I was one day to be a best in something, in anything. I am not a best. I am not even good enough! Not a good enough father, not a good enough son, not good enough at work, not good enough in anything… Stop! Destructive thinking. I am a role model for them. I must find the energy to work harder, to be better. Maybe this is a phase, a difficult phase. I need some rest.

fresh by ~thelittlegoldfish

This was another draft that sat in my book waiting for today.

In many cases, I find it very helpful to start fresh from a clean slate. My mother’s strict rules of neatness and cleanliness, or my father’s requirements for order in everything, or some genetic switch someplace on either or both sides of the family tree have resulted in what my wife calls a clear case of OCD. As expected, I am convinced that this need for order is not a disorder (she thought “auditory” as she finished reading that). Below are some examples where I have found this concept very helpful.

In most construction projects, the results are usually dramatically improved when the existing space is demolished, cleared and cleaned before the “new” work begins. But the danger of “sinchyas” is always introduced in these cases. “Sinchya gonna take down the drywall, why don’t you redo the plumbing behind it.” “Sinchya gonna redo the plumbing, get the electrical redone, too.” Assuming scope can be controlled, starting a project from a cleaner slate yields better results. However, in construction there’s also the daily “clean slate.” I cannot end a day without cleaning up the project area, putting everything in its place so that the next morning I can start from a clean slate. With this method, daily progress is very visible and exciting. Once the work completes, the contrast of before and after is part of the return for the hard work.

I have found starting from a clean sheet also very helpful in dealing with markets. Since I am not running a mutual fund, there is no reason why I cannot sell everything and force myself to buy back after a day, or a week, or a month only what makes sense. This cold shower method is the best acid test that I have found for testing my conviction of owning in the first place. Commissions, possible tax implications, possibility of having to buy at a higher price, and a few other issues do not allow this test to be free of charge. However, the alternative of holding possible losers can be even more costly. I have also found this to be a good way to deal with periods of significant uncertainty. Since I’m in no competition with the market, I tend to buy when I am ahead and sell when I am behind. These are two methods of deciding when to sell (sell all, and sell when lagging).

Even in relationships starting from a clean page is sometimes very helpful and enjoyable. Just as Mother Nature has its mechanisms for new starts, so do we. With every new year, new day and new life, we are given new energy, new hope, and new challenges.

God by ~SoundArt

In response to a recent post from Jeff Watson, I said “I don’t believe markets can be accurately predicted. I have not yet seen any evidence that proves me wrong and would appreciate learning from those who have access to such science or methods. Markets are not subject to natural laws. My objective is to lose as little purchasing power over time as possible. I have not found a way to accurately [and consistently] predict even a single future price.”

Rocky Humbert, the legendary speculator and curmudgeon, promptly responded with “I tend to agree with you, but your statement as composed could also be applied to the existence of G-d. Based on your blog, I know you to be a man of faith. How does one reconcile (”using science or methods”) the lack of faith in the predictability of markets with a faith in G-d? Or perhaps is this logically consistent?”

I am happy that my faith has come through my previous posts and thank Rocky for asking this question.

1. I have not seen any federal funding for research into existence of God in recent times. Basic science research goes nowhere without massive funding. I certainly do not propose adding yet another line item to the already gargantuan federal budget that the government believes we can finance but how can one begin to answer profound questions without much scientific study? Perhaps this is like living in the second century and trying to prove the existence of electrons and protons and the genome.

2. I have no irrefutable way to prove the existence of God aside from the miracles in my own life. Some of my reasons for having faith in God are documented here. Having faith and having proof are two different matters. Did everything happen a certain way for me by mere coincidence? Some may say that random events can line up perfectly and repeatedly. Others may say that hard work or luck is the cause. I find it easier to believe that an omnipotent God whose reasons I may not understand has arranged everything for a certain purpose. I have no internal struggle about my faith in God despite the lack of scientific verifiable proof.

3. Penn State Clips mentions interesting “Books like Gerald L. Schroeder’s The Science of God: The Convergence of Scientific and Biblical Wisdom, Francis Collins’ The Language of God: A Scientist Presents Evidence for Belief, and the various works of Josh McDowell and Lee Strobel.” Then continues with a very nice point “I agree with you that the beauty of nature is, to me, a proof of God’s existence. It strains credulity for me to believe that the beauty and complexity of all of creation came about by chance. And we only get to see the tiny fraction here on Earth!”

4. I believe that market cycles can be understood by humans who take part in such cycles. I also believe that in the long run people will benefit from diversifying their postponed expenditures in different asset classes. Beating the markets every single year or month or quarter or in the long run probably matters little. Furthermore, I have little faith that the current binary computer models can reliably predict the complex interrelationships in ever changing markets. An interesting read may be the uncertainty principle.

5. Since I am not on a mission to prove anyone anything, I can write my thoughts at the current time based on my limited life and experiences. Some may believe that markets are completely predictable and may even be able to “win” with their systems. I wish they will choose to share their “proofs” as those works may become cornerstones of new and amazing human discoveries and progress. Others may feel God’s love and grace are the “opium” the simple ones like me need to get through life. Certainly evolution will not be quick enough in that deep hole at the time of greatest despair or in the moment of amazing joy to revert the species to the mean. When I read what I wrote last year, I laugh. Maybe a year from now I will laugh about this post.

6. I welcome all thoughts, opinions, debates and proofs. I accept everyone the way I hope God will accepts me with all my flaws, opinions, and thoughts.

I realize that this is probably not the rock solid evidence or reconciliation that Rocky may have been expecting but felt it was better to post rather than have it in the draft folder forever.

Modernizing of History 5 by ~forrest-rowell

“So convenient a thing it is to be a reasonable creature, since it enables one to find or make a reason for everything one has a mind to do.” ~ Benjamin Franklin

What a perfect way to summarize our lives and the world in a single sentence! As self-aware creatures we are capable of recognizing self-deception yet acceptance of it (or even recognition) is rarely visible externally even if it takes place internally. Per Dr. Franklin, I should now attempt to “find or make a reason” for this observation. Actually, let me skip that step this time.

Markets are the best place to observe the “reason” factory in action. Why is something selling for more today than yesterday? Why did one buy or sell something at a particular level? Life is one giant reason factory. From workplace to world politics, from entrepreneurial endeavors to unthinkable acts, we are busy finding or making reasons for everything we do.

Maybe all we can do is hope that we do everything for the right reasons…

The process of learning from others is my “secret” method of learning life’s lessons. We have all heard that we learn through our mistakes, or failure is good. I do not subscribe to this as the price paid for making our mistakes and failures can be very high. I make mistakes all the time and learn from those but the lessons learned elsewhere help me make fewer mistakes and minimize their impact. Learning as much as possible from others’ mistakes and failures is a more profitable method especially since there are plenty of examples to learn from all around us. This process, however, is not easy and requires brutal honesty with ourselves along with ability to connect, understand and learn from everyone around us. On learning, this post from Nigel Davies should not be missed. Also on learning, this post from Jeff Watson drills on street smarts vs. book smarts. This letter from Victor Niederhoffer should be read by all children from 0 to 100 years old.

Maroon Bells by *Latefor

I made a comment there about each life representing a bell shaped curve of some sort. While we represent a statistic in various frequency distributions that also look like bell curves, there I was talking about our individual life’s highs and lows by any measure (health, wealth, knowledge, contributions, physical ability, suffering, etc.) also looking like bells along the time dimension. These are not perfectly balanced bells and at any point in time, there’s someone who’s just starting and another who’s at the top of the curve. Learning from those who have already made the mistakes or failed along their bell path when we become interested in the subject is an exciting experience but requires sometimes temporarily ignoring other characteristics and disabling some of our screens. Obviously, we must be careful to only soak in the content that we seek and not the rest present in the overwhelming composite called the human nature.

Along the same lines, I could not get away from the TV during this interview with Sara Lawrence-Lightfoot about the “third chapter” in life. I’m only in my second chapter but can already sense the significant changes in patience and perspective. While I am in no rush to reach the third chapter, it is good to know of at least one way to deal with the changes in the bells.

Death by Debt by ~jessiechrist

I recently stumbled upon the exact figures of US Debt to the Penny which as of a second ago indicated that public debt outstanding was $11,043,588,980,678.90. The latest monthly report is available here. I was very surprised to see we still had such debt given this prediction to have the debt paid off by now. The FAQ encourages us, the private citizens, to help pay off this debt with the following statement:

“How do you make a contribution to reduce the debt?

Make your check payable to the Bureau of the Public Debt, and in the memo section, notate that it is a Gift to reduce the Debt Held by the Public. Mail your check to:

Attn Dept G
Bureau Of the Public Debt
P. O. Box 2188
Parkersburg, WV 26106-2188″

I must say that this is not an April fools joke because research a bit further shows that people do make gifts to pay off the debt. However, before you make your contribution, please note this news story which indicates that the bailouts and the various expenditures could total $10.8 trillion.

Also please note that although we are all patriotic citizens who want to pay off this debt (and even if the whole world jumps in to help), this FED report says that there’s only about $8.3 trillion around (M3 is no longer published) and that money is created from around $2 trillion (soon to be $3 trillion) of reserves (interestingly we have only about $900 billion cash out there). If you know how the total debt can be paid off with all of the outstanding money, please help me understand this.

I also cannot figure out if the gifts to pay of the debt count as charitable donations for tax deduction purposes.

Americans are very smart people. I believe I have just understood why they choose to spend instead of saving.

Lenin by ~Belotaurus

A sense of worry about the many negative unintended consequences of recent actions has come over me. Perhaps it has something to do with receiving “healthy” doses of government propaganda during my ten years in the Soviet Armenian school system. I can still remember the brain-cleansing we had to undergo about how Comrade Lenin loved children and how Comrade Stalin also loved children and how many cubic tons of iron ore were required to meet the five year plan of the… In the name of the taxpayer much change is being proposed. I thought corporations also pay taxes. Perhaps, it is the collapse of the Soviet Union which taught me so many lessons. Even today, I remember vividly the day when we heard about the massacres in Sumgait in February of 1988. In my memory, this was the event that sparked the collapse of a dark era started by the events of 1917.

It seems that people forget that to grow anything meaningful in a garden, the soil must be rich with humus and at the right acidity. It seems they forget that once something is planted that the ground and the roots should not be disturbed. What business does Congress have in passing a 90% tax on anything? Given things stay roughly the same, I am sure the economy will get better sooner or later. The challenge right now is that nothing is a given.

For people who trade via systems, I have a question. At which point does one decide to:

1. modify the system (and to what degree and based on what)?
2. discard the system (and why)?
3. continue relying on the system (and for how long); if such a system is producing losing trades more recently but has worked fine for a long time (definition of time scales not relevant)?

Perhaps the answer contains clues regarding our recent government actions (and market reactions) where the scale of the system and the magnitude of its impact is great. The problem is further complicated by control over one’s actions but lack of control over [negative] consequences of those actions in human systems.

The second question that does not leave me alone is whether a game of chess (or any other game) can be won if after every few moves, the game rules are modified. Does the player quickly adjust and remain focused on winning the game according to the new rules (“queen can only move three squares at a time” for example) or does the focus shift on guessing what the next set of rule changes may be? After a few sets of changes and corresponding adjustments, does the player begin to suspect the rule maker in “supporting” the other side?

Rocky Trail by ~Meemster1973

This site seems to have become yet another barometer. There are times when I want to write every minute and everything, and then there are times when I find myself struggling to write a single word. In the latter case, I find comfort in the best practices of lawn maintenance which suggest to cut the grass according to growth rate NOT calendar. In some blogs, people seem to force themselves to write daily (in some cases multiple times per day). While this might be a good way to practice self-discipline and might result in higher numbers of readers (to advertise to), that is not possible in my case given the purpose of this site and the rest of what constitutes my life. I recognize that I probably lose many readers along the way who like daily updates. Despite the title here, I am unable to come up with something worth sharing every day. I knew this when I started but thought that years later with thousands of past entries the frequency would be less relevant. I hope the content will be of some interest and some value to a couple people.

Interestingly, I get a bunch of search hits every day to Newton’s Laws In Everyday Life and hundreds of hits to Understanding Poetry: The Final Frontier. Who would have thought… George Soros is right on the money when he says “First, financial markets do not reflect prevailing conditions accurately; they provide a picture that is always biased or distorted in one way or another. Second, the distorted views held by market participants and expressed in market prices can, under certain circumstances, affect the so-called fundamentals that market prices are supposed to reflect.” To paraphrase, my point  is “blog statistics do not reflect the value of the work accurately; they provide a picture that is always biased or distorted in one way or another but these distorted views held by the author(s) and expressed in the writing, can affect the content that the statistics are supposed to reflect.” I consciously try to avoid falling into this trap because my goal here is not to sell advertising, or to sell myself, or to create works of art (God never gave me that unique gift). I just want to share my journey and in the process leave a worthy trail; however, I want the journey to matter even if the trail proves to be of little value.