God by ~SoundArt

In response to a recent post from Jeff Watson, I said “I don’t believe markets can be accurately predicted. I have not yet seen any evidence that proves me wrong and would appreciate learning from those who have access to such science or methods. Markets are not subject to natural laws. My objective is to lose as little purchasing power over time as possible. I have not found a way to accurately [and consistently] predict even a single future price.”

Rocky Humbert, the legendary speculator and curmudgeon, promptly responded with “I tend to agree with you, but your statement as composed could also be applied to the existence of G-d. Based on your blog, I know you to be a man of faith. How does one reconcile (”using science or methods”) the lack of faith in the predictability of markets with a faith in G-d? Or perhaps is this logically consistent?”

I am happy that my faith has come through my previous posts and thank Rocky for asking this question.

1. I have not seen any federal funding for research into existence of God in recent times. Basic science research goes nowhere without massive funding. I certainly do not propose adding yet another line item to the already gargantuan federal budget that the government believes we can finance but how can one begin to answer profound questions without much scientific study? Perhaps this is like living in the second century and trying to prove the existence of electrons and protons and the genome.

2. I have no irrefutable way to prove the existence of God aside from the miracles in my own life. Some of my reasons for having faith in God are documented here. Having faith and having proof are two different matters. Did everything happen a certain way for me by mere coincidence? Some may say that random events can line up perfectly and repeatedly. Others may say that hard work or luck is the cause. I find it easier to believe that an omnipotent God whose reasons I may not understand has arranged everything for a certain purpose. I have no internal struggle about my faith in God despite the lack of scientific verifiable proof.

3. Penn State Clips mentions interesting “Books like Gerald L. Schroeder’s The Science of God: The Convergence of Scientific and Biblical Wisdom, Francis Collins’ The Language of God: A Scientist Presents Evidence for Belief, and the various works of Josh McDowell and Lee Strobel.” Then continues with a very nice point “I agree with you that the beauty of nature is, to me, a proof of God’s existence. It strains credulity for me to believe that the beauty and complexity of all of creation came about by chance. And we only get to see the tiny fraction here on Earth!”

4. I believe that market cycles can be understood by humans who take part in such cycles. I also believe that in the long run people will benefit from diversifying their postponed expenditures in different asset classes. Beating the markets every single year or month or quarter or in the long run probably matters little. Furthermore, I have little faith that the current binary computer models can reliably predict the complex interrelationships in ever changing markets. An interesting read may be the uncertainty principle.

5. Since I am not on a mission to prove anyone anything, I can write my thoughts at the current time based on my limited life and experiences. Some may believe that markets are completely predictable and may even be able to “win” with their systems. I wish they will choose to share their “proofs” as those works may become cornerstones of new and amazing human discoveries and progress. Others may feel God’s love and grace are the “opium” the simple ones like me need to get through life. Certainly evolution will not be quick enough in that deep hole at the time of greatest despair or in the moment of amazing joy to revert the species to the mean. When I read what I wrote last year, I laugh. Maybe a year from now I will laugh about this post.

6. I welcome all thoughts, opinions, debates and proofs. I accept everyone the way I hope God will accepts me with all my flaws, opinions, and thoughts.

I realize that this is probably not the rock solid evidence or reconciliation that Rocky may have been expecting but felt it was better to post rather than have it in the draft folder forever.

Every time I am at a hospital, I am humbled by the service provided by doctors, nurses, and other hospital workers. These people are truly special people. They serve others as if that is the only way to live. Right before my surgery, one of the doctors, a nice Irish lady, noticed worry on my face and said “This might be an uncommon experience for you but don’t worry we do this every day and you’ll be just fine.” I hear all kinds of negative comments from people about our health care system but I consider it exceptional. Many smart caring people spend years studying and then join a workforce and a system that has only one purpose: to care for the rest of us. I am thankful for living in this country and benefiting from its health care system.

Chess by =leonard-ART

“Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.” ~ Albert Einstein

If you have something important to convey, just say Einstein said it or it’s one of Franklin’s quotes. I don’t know for sure who said the above but it made sense to me especially given this little experience yesterday.

My six-year-old knows how to play chess and recently has started making me think harder. I’m not a particularly strong player but always enjoy the game. So, the two of us sometimes gang up on the computer to see if we can beat the Windows Chess program at its lowest levels and quite often we beat it. Yesterday was one of those times when we were winning against the computer. Toward the end of the game I noticed that my son wanted to get 4 queens. I reminded him that the objective of the game was to capture the king and not just accumulate multiple queens. He knew this already but he could not break his focus from accumulating more power.

This was a very powerful lesson and reminder for me. What is the objective of the game? I’ll stop here.

Glass distortions by ~ahillo

Earlier I wrote about separating the wheat from the chaff but today a few sentences in comments of a post provided much food for thought. The lens of our minds often paint a very distorted picture of ourselves and, as a result, of others and the world around us. Unfortunately, since we only have a single point of reference, it is difficult for many of us to catch and correct this distortion. The distorted view, in turn, tends to cause us to dismiss ideas, thoughts, or points that could otherwise be invaluable (the wheat). We correct this distortion through constantly cross-checking what we see with what others see either via live experiences or via imagination enriched through education, reading, and other means of learning. For example, Dr. House in a popular TV show wants his team to challenge his thinking forcing him to see the same problem from different angles. Dr. Niederhoffer in Daily Speculations gets a real-time perspective from his readers while exchanging with them his perspectives. Another example is our ability to use past education, reading to relate to current events, or current people (mind applying past patterns to current ones). We are hard at work trying to correct the distortions created by our own upbringing, learning and experiences, yet often we end up with an even more distorted view if our subconscious corrective efforts are not using the appropriate models or people. If I had multiple lives, I would devote one to the study of the hypothesis above. The author of the referenced post says he never lets his “personal feelings for a person interfere with any good ideas they bring to the table” which is perhaps his effort to correct the distortions by forcing his mind to remain open despite the stimulus (dislike) to close.

There is another sentence hidden in those comments stating that “the person and his/her ideas are 2 different things.” Is this really possible? I believe that a Person = ideas + attitudes + habits + values + beliefs + qualities + character + roles + contributions + lessons + observations + legacy + other dimensions where it’s impossible for each dimension to be independent of the others. The key point I forgot to mention in the post comments is regarding the time dimension. While we are the sum of what we do, say, write, believe… these do change over time allowing us to change as well. I remember reading someplace Gandhi saying “A person cannot do right in one department of life whilst attempting to do wrong in another department. Life is one indivisible whole.” Humans are complex beings but one way to understand ourselves and others is to realize that we are multidimensional beings, with many parts to each equation. And, those parts are always changing. Some parts we hope change very frequently (experiences, observations, etc.) while some parts we hope remain fairly constant (good character, trustworthiness, etc.).

I have noticed that people who try to understand the market (or life) spend more time learning themselves as the market (and life) is unforgiving and doesn’t care about our distorted screens. There are too many opinions that can further distort our views causing confusion and doubt. Since our positions and actions in aggregate determine our success, we tend to focus on these trying to understand how the universe can affect them. In life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, an open mind and active efforts to correct our own distorted views are required.

For fear of having another very long post, I’ll stop here.

Down is Up... by ~Dsva

I was the summer intern at Eaton Vance, in the Strategic Income Fund team a few summers ago. Taking my job very seriously, I did everything to make sure that my duties were carried out to absolute perfection with attention to every detail. After a few weeks, the team got used to having everything in order; and I realized that I had created a process where I could have a few hours free at the end of every day to ask questions, check the markets, read the hundreds of research papers that came to our group, and learn. I tried to learn as much as I could from this small group of very bright people who managed two mutual funds.

At the end of the summer, I received Victor Niederhoffer’s book The Education of  a Speculator as a farewell gift. In addition to all the wisdom in the book, there are a few notes inside the front cover and the farewell card.

“From one amateur speculator to another…”

“I’m sure you’ll succeed in your American adventure…”

…

“I hope you’ll know what Victor means – come back and visit when you’re rich…”

“I expect you to surpass the achievements of George Sorosanian without cutting corners like Michael Milkenian…”

“Just remember the market could go up or it could go down…”

Over the years, I have often remembered these last three parting wishes. I have not visited them yet and will probably not visit for quite some time. I’m still working on the achievements but having just read The Crisis & What to Do About It by George Soros, I have a long way to go. And there’s not a day (especially today) when I don’t remember the last reminder…

Florida - holga10 by Pauline Celle

Spring of 1994 was as full of hope as the spring of 1993. I had applied to a few colleges in the US but the question of financial support still remained unresolved.

At school I had a friend whose parents had emigrated from Poland. He used to be in my physics class. During one of the labs he offered to drive if I’d be interested to go check out the international fair in St. Petersburg. A few days later, my friend and I were walking around in the giant arena where people with ancestry from almost every country had setup booths showcasing whatever they considered representative of their culture. Having met no Armenians in Florida, I thought the probability of seeing an Armenian booth would infinitely approach zero. I hadn’t even finished my thought when I came across a huge area representing Armenia. After months of culture shock, being homesick and not seeing anything Armenian, I was stunned. I must have been standing there for some time to provoke a nice lady and her husband to approach and start a conversation.

It was wonderful to find the Armenian community in Florida. We went to church together, I shared with them my experiences, they told me their stories. I got close to two elderly couples who always called and invited me to all kinds of gatherings helping me become a part of the community. This, in hindsight, was something I really needed at the time. Their friendship helped me balance the cultural transfusion I was undergoing. Little did I know that they would help me tremendously in the next few years as if it had all been perfectly planned for me.

One day, they invited me to a small gathering. Suspecting nothing whatsoever, I arrived at a house full of the members of the community gathered to celebrate my birthday. Later I found out that my Armenian friends had arranged this party to help fund my return to America. My birthday present purchased the return ticket to America later that summer.

These two couples have helped me tremendously during my initial years. I will not mention names to respect their privacy. Their support will always be remembered and they will always be honored and loved in my home and in my heart for everything that they did. They have not only helped me financially but also provided much needed moral support. Moreover, they told me many stories from their lives and shared lessons they had learned which have helped me deal with my own situations. These are gifts that for me are worth far more than anything sold anywhere.

One of the papers that they signed to become my sponsors had a field for relationship. “What should I write here?” I asked. “Cousin” was the instantaneous reply. I remember I was so proud of that word probably because cousins are considered brothers and sisters in Armenian culture (much closer relationships than the word represents in the American culture). But I also knew that what he did was something very few cousins would ever do for each other. I have saved those papers and look at them periodically to remember and honor their support and friendship.

Years later when I asked them why they helped a stranger who could have turned out to be anything? They reminded me that people had also helped them in their early days and that I would probably do the same.

My year was coming to an end, I had been accepted to a few colleges but had decided that I would attend a community college if I was able to return because that would place the least burden on the people who had offered to help me. My research showed that only the US consul in Armenia could approve my return; therefore, I had to have all my paperwork in absolute order before I could even begin to hope for yet another dream to become reality. I knew that if I did not return to the US, I would miss my new family very much. They had made the year as perfect as I could have ever dreamed. I had learned a lot from them and had become very attached to them.

As a final step, I called my friends in Boston to let them know that I was returning to Armenia and wish them all the best and hope that I would see them again some day. The rest of the story leaves me humbled by God’s amazing powers.

Culture shock by ~yarry

I don’t remember exactly how long the honeymoon period of textbook culture shock lasted but soon I found myself dealing with the resentment, rejection phase during which I couldn’t believe how terrible American education was, how tasteless American food was, and how wonderful everything back in Armenia was. This is the first time I understood and felt the physical pain from longing (Armenian word “կարոտ”). I’d become close friends with this pain. We would get to know each other well as it would frequent me for a few years.

I attended high school during this year and mainly learned English, American history and the culture. All other subjects were nowhere near what I had already completed in Armenia. If they hadn’t been in a foreign language, I could get excellent grades without listening during class or opening a single textbook. In hindsight, this year was not about academics. Instead, I went through a difficult cultural adjustment, learned the language, and worked on ways to attend college in America. Throughout the year, my American family supported me in so many ways that when I look back as a parent, I wonder how they actually managed to do it. I am sure it was not easy at all for them.

In many ways, I am very fortunate to have experienced a new culture and a new family. We tend to have lens through which we view the world, but in my case, I had been given an extra set to see it in different colors. The result has been a fascinating experience. Transitions from Armenian culture to American culture, from my family to my new family, from being a kid to growing up, from helping out to being helped, from wanting to leave to wanting to stay all took place at roughly the same time. Amazingly, there were many people who supported me in this process. The librarian at the high school was one of the most encouraging and supportive people ever and played a very key role during that year. Many of the friends and family of my new family also were very supporting and wonderful people.

I hope that over the years, I can come back and add to this post all my memories. Normal teenagers go through so much at the age of sixteen. I had chosen to go through it all in a foreign country. Fortunately, my host family was there to help. The hardest times were the holidays. December 31st was a really difficult day away from family and friends. I would have never thought that I’d be writing about it almost exactly fifteen years later. Around the holidays, I had already started working on getting accepted into an American college or university. I had taken the standardized tests and had discovered that my English was far weaker than my math. However, the main hurdle remained the financing as I had no more than a couple hundred dollars saved up. But as I had come to expect, an unexpected, unbelievable event made it all possible.

Bentley University

After overnight stays in Paris and Philadelphia, we arrived at Bentley. Who would have thought at the time that five years later I would graduate from this great institution with a Bachelor’s degree in Finance? The three-week immersion program was perfect for a novice English learner like me. But the amazing part of it was the chain of events it triggered which in hindsight seem surreal. Perhaps the lives of others are also chains of interconnected, interrelated events but looking back, to this day I am amazed and consider these to be God’s expressions.

There were seven of us Armenians from the group of thirty-two who were advised to attend the program. I don’t remember exactly the order of events but upon hearing about our arrival, one of the local Armenian priests who lived five minutes from the school came to visit and let us know that if we needed anything, he was there to help. Years later, the same beloved priest conducted our wedding ceremony, then years later christened both our children. He had also conducted the wedding of my wife’s parents a few decades before and had christened my wife. However, the day we met him, I simply knew that it was wonderful to find a reassuring person in a foreign country who shared our Armenian heritage.

On one of the hot summer days during the three weeks, we went on a boat trip to George’s Island. On the boat, I heard some folks speaking the beautiful western Armenian dialect, approached them and started talking to them. I had no clue that I was talking with my future family. The nice man who is now my friend and my father-in-law said that an Armenian picnic was coming up and he’d like to take us there. A few days later, he pulled up in his stretch limousine (years later I drove that car to ear a few dollars) to pick us up. I remember the faces of the other students in the program when the Armenian kids were being picked up in a limo.

My English certainly improved noticeably during the program. With so many new fond memories, impressions of Boston and Cambridge, new Armenian friends, further cultural awareness, I thought that the three weeks flew by quicker than three seconds. The honeymoon period of standard culture shock was well underway as I arrived at my final destination (temporarily final) in southern Florida, the sub-tropical state where nothing from humidity, atmospheric pressure to people and their culture was anything I had ever experienced before.

Newton's Laws by ~bananagram

Isaac Newton’s three laws on motion are fundamental in classical mechanics in physics but I think they also apply just as strongly in our daily lives and our relationships. Let me draw the parallels and let you decide. Is it possible that if we applied these in our lives, we would be able to achieve a new level of harmony and tranquility?

“A body continues to maintain its state of rest or of uniform motion unless acted upon by an external unbalanced force.” ~ Newton’s First Law

An entire book could be written about the applicability of this law in our lives. We remain in the same state of mind unless we open our minds to external influences. Our relationships remain the same unless we apply some forces to change directions, change attitudes, or change the environment. Our environment will not change unless we apply external forces to improve it. Governments, companies, organizations continue in the same path unless a force of change is applied to them. Many more examples can be given here but some opposites are also true. Preservation of a current state may require significant forces to counter-balance the effects of negative forces. Upholding the United States Constitution requires daily work of many people and in some cases fights against injustice, improper applications, and incorrect interpretations. Maintaining a happy family requires pushing back on all negative influences getting in the way. Maintaining positive outlook in life requires working hard on our inner mental state against negative external influences. Let’s look at the second law.

“F = ma: the net force on an object is equal to the mass of the object multiplied by its acceleration.” ~ Newton’s Second Law

Our effectiveness is equal to our substance multiplied by our hard work. Stated differently, if we are not smart and strong, we must work harder to have the same results. As organizations, the teams we hire determine our success because for the same amount of time/work, we must achieve higher results than our competition. As countries, the stronger our individuals, families, communities, and organizations are, the higher our chances of counter-balancing negative forces of nature and calamities. Also, note that it is acceleration rather than velocity that matters. The faster we move, the more we produce, the more we learn and the faster we learn, the stronger our force output becomes. People with integrity and substance have a higher chance of having a lasting impact than those who lack these qualities. The third law is my favorite.

“To every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.” ~ Newton’s Third Law

I think of this as the Golden Rule in Christian culture. Treating others the way we want to be treated is so fundamental that it’s actually a law in physics explaining the motion of objects large and small. In times of war, the party with the greater force overpowers the opposite side because of an unequal opposite reaction. However, couldn’t this also be true inside our families? If you want something in your relationships, perhaps you should be first to give and then maybe this law of physics will kick in and start working. The examples here are endless. Unfortunately, we are humans and are more complex than objects (check out tit for tat for example).

The world is a complex place but these laws have simplified much in the world of mechanics. Perhaps, they can help simplify something in your world as well. If you came here because you were searching for examples of application of Newton’s laws in daily life, please leave a comment and let me know why you were curious.

The Kid

I recently came across some alarming statistics. Even if they are only 5% correct, it bothers me beyond words to look at them. So, here are a few of my thoughts on parenting.

Every time I hear (or say) the words “my children,” I always remember that children are separate, unique individuals who have their distinct lives. Perhaps it’s the human instinct or some chemistry equation that is responsible for many parents thinking that they “own” their children and some harsh parents “disowning” their children as an act of extreme punishment. Ownership does not apply to children. Why is this so important? This distinction is important because we sometimes ignore, abuse, disregard, and discard the things we own. If we do not like the new set of knives we just purchased, we can take them back to the store and ask for a refund (ultimately we can donate them or throw them away). If the new car does not perform according to specifications, we have warranty repair and the lemon laws. If we’re not happy with the new house we just bought, we can move somewhere else.

We do not own our children. God has entrusted us with their care and proper upbringing. Imagine you take your child to school and later in the day find out that the teacher was disrespectful, unprofessional, or in a milder case not doing a good job teaching. Every good parent would be upset with some becoming outraged. All parents would demand a solution. It is no different when it comes to someone else (God in this case) entrusting us with his children to care for, to do our best to teach, help and respect. They learn what to do by watching what we do. They learn how to feel by studying our feelings. They learn to listen by the way we listen to them. They learn how to be by the way we are. I am saying these things not only from observation of my little ones, but because of my own upbringing. Looking back, I am reminded that I have become a collection of all my experiences, observations, feelings, and thoughts. They too will be. Therefore, it is our responsibility as parents to help them with their journey through experiences, feelings, thoughts, and observations.

This may sound like common sense; however, I have noticed smart, educated, well-raised parents sometimes make critical mistakes. For example, if we hesitate when faced with a decision, even if we believe children do not know or do not understand, they sense our uncertainty and hesitation and learn to hesitate (the “normal” response in their mind) when faced with similar decisions. When faced with a complex decision, one that should make us hesitate and consider all the factors, we cannot rush to judgment because they too will learn to rush to judgment in these cases. If we are unable to love fully, how will they learn how to love? If we are not thankful for what we have, how will they learn to be thankful for what they have? If we break down or explode under stress, they learn that to be the valid response under stress.

Let me make a couple more points. If the two parents respond differently, children receive mixed messages and have to keep testing and retesting to get to the bottom line. If the parents respond incorrectly to the tests and retests, children learn to take advantage of these situations. They are people also, and at that very smart little people. If parents are unable to resolve conflicts among themselves and with others, how can children learn how to resolve conflicts? More importantly, if we are unable to resolve internal conflicts, they too will have difficulty with their own internal conflicts. Remembering that I am in the role of the “school teacher” who has been entrusted the upbringing, well-being and balanced education of God’s little children has helped me deal with my personal shortcomings when dealing with the abundance of stimuli in my life. We cannot change the challenges that are dealt to us, but we as parents must respond in the way we would want our kids to respond when they’re faced with similar challenges.